Hmmm. I don't have any exciting behind-the-scenes knowledge, but I'm still leaning a little against there being an autumn election. I think it's more likely than it was a few weeks ago (maybe up from 80/20 against to 60/40) but I'm basing my feelings on:
1) Unless Brown calls an election by Tuesday, it won't be until after the clocks have gone back. Winter elections tend to depress turnout, and low turnout often hits Labour more than the Tories.
2) Harold Wilson, 1970. He thought he'd win, called an election, and saw his lead melt away.
3) Brown is basing his appeal on not being Tony Blair. He seems to want people to see him as a solid, reliable, unflashy type who doesn't take unnecessary risks. Calling a snap election is just that: risky.
As for who to vote for, I don't know you well enough to know your political views, so I don't have a clue. I hope that was helpful. =:P
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1) Unless Brown calls an election by Tuesday, it won't be until after the clocks have gone back. Winter elections tend to depress turnout, and low turnout often hits Labour more than the Tories.
2) Harold Wilson, 1970. He thought he'd win, called an election, and saw his lead melt away.
3) Brown is basing his appeal on not being Tony Blair. He seems to want people to see him as a solid, reliable, unflashy type who doesn't take unnecessary risks. Calling a snap election is just that: risky.
As for who to vote for, I don't know you well enough to know your political views, so I don't have a clue. I hope that was helpful. =:P