Very interesting analysis! I was watching Newsnight on Friday and they had two guys with opposite opinions. One was a guy who worked for a polling market research firm and he advised against an election; the other was a former Labour strategist (I think?) and he felt it wasn't a bad time to have an election. I get the impression that the other parties are gearing up for it but like you said, Tuesday is the key. I find it pleasantly amusing you mention the probable impact of a winter election on Labour.

The Newsnight episode mentioned what happened to Harold Wilson but I don't think past performance is a necessarily reliable indicator for future performance. And you're right, calling a snap election is risky (esp for how he wants to be seen). I wonder if the whole talk is just intended to ruffle the Tories into getting their act together and maybe even precipitate a leadership crisis?

As for who I would vote for, noworriesatallmate. I know it'll go to either the LibDems, Greens or the Humanists. Just a matter of finding out who's going to stand and who really deserves my support (which will not just be in the form of a vote but some form of unofficial campaigning). Though given the fact I have a job now it will purely be in my spare time.