At 13:45GMT (19:15 local time),
seven bombs went off simultaneously in
Jaipur, the capital of the north-western Indian state of
Rajasthan and one of the country's most popular tourist destinations. At least 60 people have been officially confirmed dead. Goodness knows what the unofficial count is and how many are injured and how many families have been affected by this terrible tragedy. The ramifications of the attack go beyond politics. Jaipur is the host-city to the Rajasthan Royals cricket team that is taking part in the multi-million dollar cricket venture, the
Indian Premier League (IPL). It seems inconceivable that the city will host any matches in the near-future, despite assurances
"as of now" from Lalit Modi, the IPL Commissioner. Meanwhile, Martin Crowe, the Bangalore Royal Challenger's Chief Cricket Officer, has offered Bangalore's Chinnaswamy Stadium for Saturday's match between their home-team, the Royal Challengers and the Royals, instead of playing in Jaipur as originally scheduled. What do you think will happen?
Such terrorist attacks are not uncommon in India. Since 2005 there have been at least 5 attacks (including this one) in major cities throughout India that have resulted in at least 40 deaths each time. There are different ways of taking stock of this depressing track record of internal security in India. On the one hand, the situation is shockingly bad compared to the US, UK or Spain who have managed to deter all but one major terrorist act since or on 9/11. On the other hand, for a country with a rich history of violence, mistrust and hatred between Hindus and Muslims, the situation is nowhere as bad as Iraq, Palestine-Israel or Pakistan. And unlike those three disaster zones, there are nearly 200 million Muslims in India, more than any other country except Indonesia. One could even say that given the numbers and history, it is rather surprising (thankfuckinggoodness) that such major attacks are relatively few and far between.
So where to from here? If recent events are any indicator, India's response will be muted, though fingers will be pointed at unnamed neighbours not doing enough to prevent such attacks. India has shown considerable restraint since the
BJP-led government amassed around 1 million troops in Kashmir less than seven years ago in response to an
attack on our Parliament. India is under pressure from the West to avoid reacting in haste and playing the blame game (alongwith militaristic rhetoric) with Pakistan. Behind the scenes however, it seems like the West (read USA) empathises with India's seemingly legitimate concerns about Pakistan's inability, and perhaps even lack of conviction, to end their post-Partition facilitation of cross-border terrorism. Pakistan on the other hand will plead innocence and America will reward their restraint (seen in terms of not responding to potential Indian-governmental hot headedness) with F16s and other advanced military hardware (which has been proven, finally, to have been used against us in Kashmir instead of the battlefields near Afghanistan.
Over the coming weeks, while the news is fresh and interesting, the Indian government will unearth a surprising amount of information in the attack's aftermath; despite Jaipur's Director-General of Police claiming there were no intelligence reports. OK fine, let's give them the benefit of the doubt. Maintaining the internal security for a country of 1200 million people can be no easy task. Besides, in 3 weeks nobody will care enough about this old news anymore. The Chennai Super Kings will be playing the Rajasthan Royals in the IPL final and the whole country will be commenting on how brave the Goa-touristing Royals were in overcoming the tragic events of 13/5 to make the final of the world's coolest Twenty20 competition. Meanwhile the main opposition party, the BJP, will use the attack to try and gain potential political mileage in the run up to the General Election later this year (which seems unlikely given this attack) or early next year. It wouldn't be the first time that the BJP has used a major terrorist incident to gain public sympathy and win a
landslide electoral victory. The Congress-led government will be well aware of this, but they are walking an extremely thin tightrope. On the one hand they are being pressured by the West to maintain restraint, on the other they will have an eye on the upcoming election and internal political pressures to be seen to be taking a firm grip of the situation and maintaining national honour and security. It will be very interesting to see what happens from here.
In the meanwhile, my deepest sympathies go to all the families and friends who have lost loved ones in this heinous and tragic event. As ever, I hope their deaths were not in vain. Innocent people do not deserve to die like this, anywhere and everywhere. May their souls RIP.