PublicI really ought to get this post done, given it's over a week from the actual local elections now! It won't be a long or detailed post, just a few quick thoughts. As with
the "local angle" post, I'll mostly go party by party. I'm less familiar with local aspects of course, so I won't be able to spot some of the reasons for any quirky-looking results. Anyway, here are the headline results in terms of net seat changes:
Reform 677 (+677)
Lib Dems 370 (+163)
Conservatives 319 (-674)
Labour 98 (-187)
Independent 89 (-20)
Green 79 (+44)Clearly
Reform had by far the best election, going from zero councillors to over 600 in one go. They benefited from several things, I think. There is a perception well beyond the hard right that net immigration is too high. There is an even more widespread feeling that the Tories failed in (national) government and Labour are showing few signs of doing better. And, bluntly, they're the natural "None of the Above" (NOTA) vote for a lot of people. I think they'll find it harder in (local) power, and indeed we're already starting to see Reform councillors in trouble or resigning. But for now they're in clover.
The
Lib Dems also had a very good election. Although their share of the national vote was pretty steady, the party's excellent ground game and targeting experience translated into major gains. They made huge gains in Shropshire to take control of the council, but otherwise everywhere they gained more than three seats was south of Birmingham. Gloucestershire, Devon, Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire... generally they're most popular in places that are fairly comfortably off, didn't vote for Brexit, and don't like populist politics. These gains may I think be more stable than many of Reform's.
The
Conservatives had a horrible time. It should be acknowledged that when these seats were last fought in 2021, the Tories were at the high point of their recent popularity, so large losses were expected -- but not
this large. Losing almost all their seats in Kent, for example, was a political earthquake. The problem they have now is "What are the Tories
for?" Those who want hard-right rhetoric allied to almost socialist-style protectionism will vote Reform. Those who have more liberal views were put off by Johnson's expulsion of Cameroon moderates. Banging on about immigration sounds ridiculous from the party that had a majority to set policy for a decade.
Of course,
Labour can't be smug as they had a dreadful election as well -- and in their case they were starting from a
low base. They can be relieved that the big city councils weren't up this time around, as I strongly suspect Reform would have made huge gains in those, Liverpool and maybe Bristol apart. They also have something of an identity crisis. Right now they seem to be trying to be "Reform Lite", which is surely not going to work. As with Tory centrists, those who want hardline policies will vote Reform, those who have moderate views will go Lib Dem. Actually it's even worse for Labour, as the Corbynite "proper socialism" wing of the party may also flake off to the Greens.
Talking of which, the
Greens themselves had a reasonably good showing. Not as great as they might have hoped, in particular coming only third for the West of England mayoralty that they had entertained hopes of winning. They're also still apparently unable to resolve the tensions between the more rural, Nimby-ish Greens in Worcestershire or Gloucestershire, and the socialism/Palestine wing I mentioned in the Labour section. They're unlikely to end up in coalitions or agreements running any of these actual councils, I think, though I may be missing somewhere obvious.
We're in strange and uncharted waters at the moment. The two parties that have dominated English politics since the advent of the universal franchise in 1928 are now getting under 40% combined in the national opinion polls, a completely unprecedented event. (I'm not counting the one-off weirdness of the 2019 European elections, held when Brexit was already decided and was only a few months from being implemented.) First Past the Post breaks down horribly in a situation like this, and right now only a fool would predict how the 2029 general election would turn out.
One final note: I don't think politicians in Scotland or Wales should get too smug about these results. Both the Scottish Parliament and the Senedd have elections next year, and I don't think it's entirely out of the question that Reform could come second (after the respective nationalists) in both. In Scotland none of the conventional unionist parties seem to have much idea how to challenge the SNP, while in Wales the long-standing Labour administration is becoming increasingly unpopular. The Reform bubble might burst -- but right now populists are riding high across Western Europe. We'll have to wait and see.
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loganberrybunny
