I think it will be down at the low end of the "Obama easily" band, perhaps somewhere in the region of 330 EVs. I think he might have trouble taking North Carolina, but I do think he'll manage Pennsylvania. If McCain takes Florida then it'll be really tight, but I think Obama should just hang on there.
Yeh I agree with you about the low end of the "Obama easily" band. Thanks for the insight to where he might have trouble, haven't been following this election as much as I would like because of my studies. Will this new poll giving McCain a +2 advantage or something change things dramatically?!
I haven't seen that poll, but it seems to be an outlier rather than part of a last-minute trend. The bookies still have McCain out at around 8/1, which is pretty long odds for a two-horse race!
Why I'm superstitious? I don't really know. I've just always had this belief that there's no guarantee of anything happening until it's happened, and something as important as a Presidential election is something I really don't want to risk jinxing.
no subject
Date: 2008-11-02 08:50 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-11-02 08:53 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-11-03 06:05 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-11-03 09:23 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-11-02 10:17 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-11-03 06:06 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-11-03 10:10 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-11-05 02:56 pm (UTC)